The solarwind blog

PEAK OIL are we there yet?

This is one of those un-answerable questions, Due to two major factors:-

1; Most oil producing countries class their known held oil reserves as a state secret.

2; Large oil companies will manipulate their oil reserve figures to gain the best future market price per barrel (in other words you cannot believe a word they say)

This makes all predictions on the date of “Peak oil” as a best guess game.

 But there is no question (all are agreed) that the “Peak discovery of oil” was in the mid 1960’s.

 The available figures for 2006 show that for every 1 barrel of new oil discovered that year, we used up 5 barrel out of our known of reserves!!!Also most new oil found will be harder to harvest plus the new discoveries are mainly classed as dirty oil (higher refinery costs).

 Interesting article from “wolfatthedoor.org”.

 For years, the experts have been warning of the dangers of oil depletion. They have been accused of crying wolf. This time, the wolf really is at the door.

The Real Danger

Everyday in the news, we hear of the threat of climate change. There are international conferences, television documentaries, books galore. Leaders meet regularly to discuss the issues and define programs. Yet, while climate change is undoubtedly a serious problem, the most dangerous aspects are not likely to threaten us for several decades and even then will be ambiguous in their results, bringing hazards for many, benefits for some, and little effect for a few. But there is a danger whose consequences will be far more destructive and which will hit us much sooner. It is a danger that will affect everybody, rich or poor, wherever they live in the world. It will require enormous financial and scientific strides to defeat, strides which the world’s governments show few signs of taking. It is a danger which, quite feasibly, could lead to the end of our industrial civilisation. It is the danger of peak oil.

I recently asked a question on a website about the financial dangers of peak oil and one reply ended with this:

“I remember being told twenty years ago that there was only twenty years of oil left. We are now being told again that we have twenty years of oil left. I wonder if we will be told the same thing in another twenty years!”

This is typical of the level of misinformation around about peak oil. Few people seem to be aware of it and many of those who are consider it a problem for the far future. I suspect that most people asked about “how long oil will last” would place the time hundreds of years in the future. If you don’t already know, ask yourself this question:

Using the known amount of available oil and the present rate of consumption, how long would it be before all that oil is used up?

This is known as the R/P ratio in the oil business (the first bit of jargon). It may surprise you to know that in the BP Statistical Review for 2007 (using data from 2005), the length of time is 40.5 years. So, any person under the age of about thirty or forty would be likely to have to face a world without any oil. The reality is not so simple as this but unfortunately the situation is far worse. Peak oil is not about when we run out of oil but, rather, when the production of cheap oil starts to decline. And, as we shall see, that is much closer than we think.

So weather we like it or not this really the time to start seriously thinking about making some changes re: our own domestic power sources, both wind and solar are the best option for most of us. (Governments and big business will have to deal with the larger national & global issues )